Trade update of EURAUD
As you already know, I have an open trade on the EURAUD, I’m short since last Tuesday from 1.3485. It is currently trading at 1.3395 (90 pips on my favor) and I’m just planning what I’m going to do with this trade. Here is the chart:
I’ll have to take a decision whether or not leave my trade open over the weekend, and here is my plan:
Have a great weekend! And see you next Monday!
Trade Safe!
I’ll have to take a decision whether or not leave my trade open over the weekend, and here is my plan:
- If the EURAUD breaks the bottom of the range (1.3367), I’ll keep my trade open and move my stop loss level to the middle of the range.
- If it doesn’t break the bottom of the range, I’ll close it and therefore will have a nice and relaxing weekend
Have a great weekend! And see you next Monday!
Trade Safe!
Friday, 21 October 2011
Yen Intervention Threat Resurface USD Weighed By Bets For QE3
DJ FXCM Dollar Index
Index | Last | High | Low | Daily Change (%) | Daily Range (% of ATR) |
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index | 9654.82 | 9766.46 | 9643.57 | -0.91 | 135.65% |
The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is 0.91 percent lower from the open after moving 136 percent of its average true range, and the gauge may continue to push lower over the following week as breaks down from its current range. As the 30-minute pushes deep into oversold territory, we may see the greenback trade heavy throughout the remainder of the day, and optimism surrounding the EU Summit may stoke additional U.S. dollar selling as market participants increase their appetite for risk. However, we expect to see a short-term correction once the oscillator trades back above 30, which could lead the index to work its way back towards the upper Bollinger Band around 9,790, and the greenback may turn higher over the following week as the economic docket is expected to instill an improved outlook for future growth.
As the index breaks below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 9,708, we may see the gauge make a run towards the 23.6% Fib around 9,560, and the USD may threaten the rebound from earlier this year as the Fed continues to talk up speculation for additional monetary support. Indeed, comments from FOMC board member Daniel Tarullo renewed speculation for QE3 as he urged the committee to consider additional asset purchases, and the Fed may keep the door open to expand its balance sheet further as the slowing recovery heightens the risk of a double-dip recession. However, the central bank may resort to a wait-and-see approach for the remainder of the year as policy makers expect economic activity to pickup over the coming months, and we will need to see the Fed soften its dovish tone for monetary policy in order to see the USD extend the rally from the previous month.
All four components gained ground against the USD, led by the British Pound and the Australian dollar, while the Japanese Yen advanced to a fresh record-high (75.80) against the greenback. The ongoing appreciation in the JPY certainly raises the risk of seeing a currency intervention, and the Bank of Japan may face increased pressures to stem the marked appreciation in the local currency as it dampens the outlook for the economy. However, we may see the Japanese government take matters into its own hands as the central bank refrains from directly participating in the foreign exchange market, but the efforts to normalize the exchange rate may not have the desired effect as market participants diversify away from the reserve currency. In turn, market participants may continue to fade any advances in the USD/JPY, and the exchange rate may continue to push lower over the remainder of the year as the downward trend carried over from back in 2007.
--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
10/21/11 Forex Market Outlook
The market has been range-bound headed into the weekend, but man, those ranges are pretty big! I was surprised as I thought we’d see the ranges tighten up but that hasn’t been the case. Yesterday, the markets made huge moves as various news trickled out regarding the Euro debt crisis.
It is times like these when I tend to be more cautious, as it is difficult to know when news may hit or what its impact may be. Yesterday, the markets were selling off as risk aversion picked up throughout the early US session, only to completely reverse after “news” came out that the size of the rescue plan is going to be in the magnitude of $1.3 Trillion, with a “T”. That is encouraging news for the market, as in this case more is better.
But, later that day, news came out that indeed EU leaders needed more time to unveil the plan and that this weekend’s Debt Summit would not produce the resolution but rather next Wednesday will be the day that it is revealed. While this was initially seen as further stall tactics, the market is willing to give them a few extra days. They are likely close to a deal, and just need the weekend to sell it to the other members.
Though this creates another set of problems, as any dissension in the ranks could put the markets on edge. It should be no surprise though that they moved the decision, falling back more in line with what Merkozy originally proposed and not the G-20 timeline.
There’s not a ton of economic data out this morning, with German IFO survey figures coming in better than expected and the UK posting better than expected public finances on lower borrowing.
The big news of the morning came from Canada, where CPI data came in slightly hotter than expected. Core CPI came in at 2.2% vs. an expected 2%, with the headline figure at 3.2% vs. 3.1%. The Loonie has strengthened as a result, also being buoyed higher by early risk appetite in the markets.
There is no further news on the docket for today, but there could be more “news” leaked out of the Euro debt debate so there could be volatility. Not to mention general risk aversion heading into the weekend.
**This just in: USD/JPY tanking here and making a new all-time low at 75.82! Japanese intervention talk is bound to pick up now as that 76 level was seen as the “line in the sand”. This could also be the function of USD weakness if they are more involved in the bailouts of Europe. Stay tuned to this development!
So the markets are definitely behaving crazily here, so it is always good to remember to use a hard stop and take shorter term trades. There’s no telling what may happen today or over the weekend, so I’m going to step aside and not try to be a hero over the weekend. The potential risks do not outweigh the possible rewards.
It is times like these when I tend to be more cautious, as it is difficult to know when news may hit or what its impact may be. Yesterday, the markets were selling off as risk aversion picked up throughout the early US session, only to completely reverse after “news” came out that the size of the rescue plan is going to be in the magnitude of $1.3 Trillion, with a “T”. That is encouraging news for the market, as in this case more is better.
But, later that day, news came out that indeed EU leaders needed more time to unveil the plan and that this weekend’s Debt Summit would not produce the resolution but rather next Wednesday will be the day that it is revealed. While this was initially seen as further stall tactics, the market is willing to give them a few extra days. They are likely close to a deal, and just need the weekend to sell it to the other members.
Though this creates another set of problems, as any dissension in the ranks could put the markets on edge. It should be no surprise though that they moved the decision, falling back more in line with what Merkozy originally proposed and not the G-20 timeline.
There’s not a ton of economic data out this morning, with German IFO survey figures coming in better than expected and the UK posting better than expected public finances on lower borrowing.
The big news of the morning came from Canada, where CPI data came in slightly hotter than expected. Core CPI came in at 2.2% vs. an expected 2%, with the headline figure at 3.2% vs. 3.1%. The Loonie has strengthened as a result, also being buoyed higher by early risk appetite in the markets.
There is no further news on the docket for today, but there could be more “news” leaked out of the Euro debt debate so there could be volatility. Not to mention general risk aversion heading into the weekend.
**This just in: USD/JPY tanking here and making a new all-time low at 75.82! Japanese intervention talk is bound to pick up now as that 76 level was seen as the “line in the sand”. This could also be the function of USD weakness if they are more involved in the bailouts of Europe. Stay tuned to this development!
So the markets are definitely behaving crazily here, so it is always good to remember to use a hard stop and take shorter term trades. There’s no telling what may happen today or over the weekend, so I’m going to step aside and not try to be a hero over the weekend. The potential risks do not outweigh the possible rewards.
Moody's Spain cut weighs,Asian stocks rise
Asian shares rose on Wednesday, but gains were capped by a cut to Spain's sovereign credit rating from Moody's Investors Service that kept investors' risk appetite in check.
A rise in US stocks and a report that Europe will strengthen the region's rescue fund helped improve sentiment, with spreads over a key Asian credit default swaps index narrowing several basis points.
But bearish technicals remained in place to suggest investors were still wary about buying riskier assets.
"It's a familiar pattern these days, to sell stocks whenever there's bad news from Europe and buy them back whenever there's good news, but investors are getting tired of it," said Kenichi Hirano, operating officer at Tachibana Securities, adding that this was one reason for recent thin trade.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.5%, while the Nikkei stock average opened up 0.8%.
Moody's, one of the big three ratings agencies, on Tuesday cut Spain's sovereign ratings by two notches, saying high levels of debt in the banking and corporate sectors leave the country vulnerable to funding stresses.
The latest step followed Moody's warning on Monday over risks for France to maintaining its top credit rating.
A report on Tuesday by Britain's Guardian newspaper that France and Germany had agreed to boost a euro zone financial rescue fund to 2 trillion euros was later denied by a senior euro zone source, who told Reuters there had been no mention of such a deal.
The MSCI world equity index ended up 0.21% on Tuesday, as US stocks rose following the euro zone report, which saw big banks rally despite disappointing results.
Banks' earnings underscored the damage inflicted by the global financial turmoil, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc posting its second quarterly loss as a public company on Tuesday as its investment portfolio lost billions of dollars in value.
Bank of America Corp posted a third-quarter profit on accounting gains, but its main businesses struggled as income from lending and investment banking fell.
After the US stock market close, index futures sold off following weaker-than-expected quarterly results from Apple Inc.
In Asian credit markets, spreads on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment grade index , a gauge for whether investor risk appetite is returning, narrowed by about 5 basis points, reflecting a rise in equities.
But other gauges of risk appetite, such as cross-yen currency pairs, showed sentiment remained cautious.
The euro and the Australian dollar failed to break this week's highs against the yen and have fallen back to levels a week ago.
The euro dipped 0.1% against the dollar after Moody's cut Spain's sovereign rating. The dollar index, which measures its performance against six major currencies, inched up.
Gold, traditionally a safe-haven metal, slumped 1% in the last two sessions, reviving an inverse correlation to the dollar. Gold was down 0.1% on Wednesday.
A double top on charts, based on the two recent highs formed in late August and early September, prompted technical analysts to turn bearish on the metal's near-term outlook.
Oil prices fell, with Brent crude down 0.2% to USD 110.93 a barrel, while US crude futures fell 0.3% to USD 88.02.
A rise in US stocks and a report that Europe will strengthen the region's rescue fund helped improve sentiment, with spreads over a key Asian credit default swaps index narrowing several basis points.
But bearish technicals remained in place to suggest investors were still wary about buying riskier assets.
"It's a familiar pattern these days, to sell stocks whenever there's bad news from Europe and buy them back whenever there's good news, but investors are getting tired of it," said Kenichi Hirano, operating officer at Tachibana Securities, adding that this was one reason for recent thin trade.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.5%, while the Nikkei stock average opened up 0.8%.
Moody's, one of the big three ratings agencies, on Tuesday cut Spain's sovereign ratings by two notches, saying high levels of debt in the banking and corporate sectors leave the country vulnerable to funding stresses.
The latest step followed Moody's warning on Monday over risks for France to maintaining its top credit rating.
A report on Tuesday by Britain's Guardian newspaper that France and Germany had agreed to boost a euro zone financial rescue fund to 2 trillion euros was later denied by a senior euro zone source, who told Reuters there had been no mention of such a deal.
The MSCI world equity index ended up 0.21% on Tuesday, as US stocks rose following the euro zone report, which saw big banks rally despite disappointing results.
Banks' earnings underscored the damage inflicted by the global financial turmoil, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc posting its second quarterly loss as a public company on Tuesday as its investment portfolio lost billions of dollars in value.
Bank of America Corp posted a third-quarter profit on accounting gains, but its main businesses struggled as income from lending and investment banking fell.
After the US stock market close, index futures sold off following weaker-than-expected quarterly results from Apple Inc.
In Asian credit markets, spreads on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment grade index , a gauge for whether investor risk appetite is returning, narrowed by about 5 basis points, reflecting a rise in equities.
But other gauges of risk appetite, such as cross-yen currency pairs, showed sentiment remained cautious.
The euro and the Australian dollar failed to break this week's highs against the yen and have fallen back to levels a week ago.
The euro dipped 0.1% against the dollar after Moody's cut Spain's sovereign rating. The dollar index, which measures its performance against six major currencies, inched up.
Gold, traditionally a safe-haven metal, slumped 1% in the last two sessions, reviving an inverse correlation to the dollar. Gold was down 0.1% on Wednesday.
A double top on charts, based on the two recent highs formed in late August and early September, prompted technical analysts to turn bearish on the metal's near-term outlook.
Oil prices fell, with Brent crude down 0.2% to USD 110.93 a barrel, while US crude futures fell 0.3% to USD 88.02.
Tuesday, 18 October 2011
Sensex to rise at start...
Overall, earnings have been mixed so far - both from domestic as well as offshore firms. For the Nifty, 5095 could turn out to be an important resistance. | |
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Facing the situation! Daily Market Strategy
European indices finished mixed following the fresh downgrade of Spain and a Moody's warning to France over its "AAA" rating outlook. Apart from corporate results, investors will also keep an eye on US inflation, housing data and Fed’s beige book survey. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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