Trade update of EURAUD

As you already know, I have an open trade on the EURAUD, I’m short since last Tuesday from 1.3485. It is currently trading at 1.3395 (90 pips on my favor) and I’m just planning what I’m going to do with this trade. Here is the chart:
I’ll have to take a decision whether or not leave my trade open over the weekend, and here is my plan:
  • If the EURAUD breaks the bottom of the range (1.3367), I’ll keep my trade open and move my stop loss level to the middle of the range.
  • If it doesn’t break the bottom of the range, I’ll close it and therefore will have a nice and relaxing weekend :)
So, both scenarios are good! Hope all trades were like this one…
Have a great weekend! And see you next Monday!
Trade Safe!

Friday, 21 October 2011

Yen Intervention Threat Resurface USD Weighed By Bets For QE3

DJ FXCM Dollar Index
Index
Last
High
Low
Daily Change (%)
Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index
9654.82
9766.46
9643.57
-0.91
135.65%
USD_Weighed_By_Bets_For_QE3_Yen_Intervention_Threat_Resurface_body_ScreenShot051.png, USD Weighed By Bets For QE3, Yen Intervention Threat Resurface
The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is 0.91 percent lower from the open after moving 136 percent of its average true range, and the gauge may continue to push lower over the following week as breaks down from its current range. As the 30-minute pushes deep into oversold territory, we may see the greenback trade heavy throughout the remainder of the day, and optimism surrounding the EU Summit may stoke additional U.S. dollar selling as market participants increase their appetite for risk. However, we expect to see a short-term correction once the oscillator trades back above 30, which could lead the index to work its way back towards the upper Bollinger Band around 9,790, and the greenback may turn higher over the following week as the economic docket is expected to instill an improved outlook for future growth.
USD_Weighed_By_Bets_For_QE3_Yen_Intervention_Threat_Resurface_body_ScreenShot052.png, USD Weighed By Bets For QE3, Yen Intervention Threat Resurface
As the index breaks below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 9,708, we may see the gauge make a run towards the 23.6% Fib around 9,560, and the USD may threaten the rebound from earlier this year as the Fed continues to talk up speculation for additional monetary support. Indeed, comments from FOMC board member Daniel Tarullo renewed speculation for QE3 as he urged the committee to consider additional asset purchases, and the Fed may keep the door open to expand its balance sheet further as the slowing recovery heightens the risk of a double-dip recession. However, the central bank may resort to a wait-and-see approach for the remainder of the year as policy makers expect economic activity to pickup over the coming months, and we will need to see the Fed soften its dovish tone for monetary policy in order to see the USD extend the rally from the previous month.
USD_Weighed_By_Bets_For_QE3_Yen_Intervention_Threat_Resurface_body_ScreenShot053.png, USD Weighed By Bets For QE3, Yen Intervention Threat Resurface
All four components gained ground against the USD, led by the British Pound and the Australian dollar, while the Japanese Yen advanced to a fresh record-high (75.80) against the greenback. The ongoing appreciation in the JPY certainly raises the risk of seeing a currency intervention, and the Bank of Japan may face increased pressures to stem the marked appreciation in the local currency as it dampens the outlook for the economy. However, we may see the Japanese government take matters into its own hands as the central bank refrains from directly participating in the foreign exchange market, but the efforts to normalize the exchange rate may not have the desired effect as market participants diversify away from the reserve currency. In turn, market participants may continue to fade any advances in the USD/JPY, and the exchange rate may continue to push lower over the remainder of the year as the downward trend carried over from back in 2007.
--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

10/21/11 Forex Market Outlook

The market has been range-bound headed into the weekend, but man, those ranges are pretty big!  I was surprised as I thought we’d see the ranges tighten up but that hasn’t been the case.  Yesterday, the markets made huge moves as various news trickled out regarding the Euro debt crisis.
It is times like these when I tend to be more cautious, as it is difficult to know when news may hit or what its impact may be.  Yesterday, the markets were selling off as risk aversion picked up throughout the early US session, only to completely reverse after “news” came out that the size of the rescue plan is going to be in the magnitude of $1.3 Trillion, with a “T”.  That is encouraging news for the market, as in this case more is better.
But, later that day, news came out that indeed EU leaders needed more time to unveil the plan and that this weekend’s Debt Summit would not produce the resolution but rather next Wednesday will be the day that it is revealed.  While this was initially seen as further stall tactics, the market is willing to give them a few extra days.  They are likely close to a deal, and just need the weekend to sell it to the other members.
Though this creates another set of problems, as any dissension in the ranks could put the markets on edge.  It should be no surprise though that they moved the decision, falling back more in line with what Merkozy originally proposed and not the G-20 timeline.
There’s not a ton of economic data out this morning, with German IFO survey figures coming in better than expected and the UK posting better than expected public finances on lower borrowing.
The big news of the morning came from Canada, where CPI data came in slightly hotter than expected.  Core CPI came in at 2.2% vs. an expected 2%, with the headline figure at 3.2% vs. 3.1%.  The Loonie has strengthened as a result, also being buoyed higher by early risk appetite in the markets.
There is no further news on the docket for today, but there could be more “news” leaked out of the Euro debt debate so there could be volatility.  Not to mention general risk aversion heading into the weekend.
**This just in: USD/JPY tanking here and making a new all-time low at 75.82!  Japanese intervention talk is bound to pick up now as that 76 level was seen as the “line in the sand”.  This could also be the function of USD weakness if they are more involved in the bailouts of Europe.  Stay tuned to this development! 
So the markets are definitely behaving crazily here, so it is always good to remember to use a hard stop and take shorter term trades.  There’s no telling what may happen today or over the weekend, so I’m going to step aside and not try to be a hero over the weekend.  The potential risks do not outweigh the possible rewards.

Moody's Spain cut weighs,Asian stocks rise

Asian shares rose on Wednesday, but gains were capped by a cut to Spain's sovereign credit rating from Moody's Investors Service that kept investors' risk appetite in check.
A rise in US stocks and a report that Europe will strengthen the region's rescue fund helped improve sentiment, with spreads over a key Asian credit default swaps index narrowing several basis points.
But bearish technicals remained in place to suggest investors were still wary about buying riskier assets.
"It's a familiar pattern these days, to sell stocks whenever there's bad news from Europe and buy them back whenever there's good news, but investors are getting tired of it," said Kenichi Hirano, operating officer at Tachibana Securities, adding that this was one reason for recent thin trade.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.5%, while the Nikkei stock average opened up 0.8%.
Moody's, one of the big three ratings agencies, on Tuesday cut Spain's sovereign ratings by two notches, saying high levels of debt in the banking and corporate sectors leave the country vulnerable to funding stresses.
The latest step followed Moody's warning on Monday over risks for France to maintaining its top credit rating.
A report on Tuesday by Britain's Guardian newspaper that France and Germany had agreed to boost a euro zone financial rescue fund to 2 trillion euros was later denied by a senior euro zone source, who told Reuters there had been no mention of such a deal.
The MSCI world equity index ended up 0.21% on Tuesday, as US stocks rose following the euro zone report, which saw big banks rally despite disappointing results.
Banks' earnings underscored the damage inflicted by the global financial turmoil, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc posting its second quarterly loss as a public company on Tuesday as its investment portfolio lost billions of dollars in value.
Bank of America Corp posted a third-quarter profit on accounting gains, but its main businesses struggled as income from lending and investment banking fell.
After the US stock market close, index futures sold off following weaker-than-expected quarterly results from Apple Inc.
In Asian credit markets, spreads on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment grade index , a gauge for whether investor risk appetite is returning, narrowed by about 5 basis points, reflecting a rise in equities.
But other gauges of risk appetite, such as cross-yen currency pairs, showed sentiment remained cautious.
The euro and the Australian dollar failed to break this week's highs against the yen and have fallen back to levels a week ago.
The euro dipped 0.1% against the dollar after Moody's cut Spain's sovereign rating. The dollar index, which measures its performance against six major currencies, inched up.
Gold, traditionally a safe-haven metal, slumped 1% in the last two sessions, reviving an inverse correlation to the dollar. Gold was down 0.1% on Wednesday.
A double top on charts, based on the two recent highs formed in late August and early September, prompted technical analysts to turn bearish on the metal's near-term outlook.
Oil prices fell, with Brent crude down 0.2% to USD 110.93 a barrel, while US crude futures fell 0.3% to USD 88.02.

Tuesday, 18 October 2011

Sensex to rise at start...

Overall, earnings have been mixed so far - both from domestic as well as offshore firms. For the Nifty, 5095 could turn out to be an important resistance.

The situation seems better at least at start today. US stocks climbed amid reports that Germany and France have agreed to shore up the eurozone bailout fund. But, another report has denied the same stating that the debate on the size of the EFSF may continue for a while. Consensus view is unlikely anyways.

Asian markets are holding firm. European indices finished mixed following the fresh downgrade of Spain and a Moody's warning to France over its "AAA" rating outlook. Apart from corporate results, investors will also keep an eye on US inflation, housing data and Fed’s beige book survey.

Biocon, Bajaj Finserv, HDFC Bank, Crompton Greaves, Dish TV and Hindustan Zinc will be in focus before their earnings. Hero MotoCorp will also be in the spotlight after its Q2 results.

Overall, earnings have been mixed so far - both from domestic as well as offshore firms. For the Nifty, 5095 could turn out to be an important resistance. 
Although markets have lost some steam this week equities are less likely to tumble much unless fresh global headwinds hit us hard. At best expect sideways consolidation before any fresh move on either direction.

FIIs were net sellers of Rs. 2.85bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Tuesday, according to NSE data. The domestic institutional institutions (DIIs) were net sellers at Rs. 1.32bn on the same day.

FIIs were net sellers of Rs. 2.22bn (provisional) in the F&O segment, according to NSE web site.

The foreign funds were net buyers at Rs. 3.97bn in the cash segment on Monday, as per SEBI data. Mutual funds were net sellers at Rs. 2.29bn on the same day.

Results Today: Ajmera Realty, Alembic, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Biocon, Crompton Greaves, Dish TV, Essar Ports, HDFC Bank, Hindustan Zinc, IGL, Infotech Enterprises, JB Chemicals, Mastek, Rallis India, Raymond, Torrent Power, WWIL, Zee Learn and Zee News.

The Union Finance Ministry ruled out a rights issue for SBI in FY12 but assured the bank that its capital requirements would be met by March 31, 2012.

Separately, the Government has said that state-run banks will need Rs. 3.5 lakh crore in the coming decade, and that the Centre will provide nearly Rs. 260bn to them during FY12.

Sun Pharmaceutical has proposed to acquire 100% of Israel's Taro Pharmaceutical Industries.

GVK Airport Holdings Pvt Ltd, an arm of GVK Power & Infrastructure Ltd (GVKPIL), has acquired an additional 13.5% stake in Mumbai International Airport Pvt Ltd (MIAL).

The Government has decided to cut supply of Reliance Industries’ KG-D6 gas to some power plants such as GMR’s Tanir Bavi and Lanco’s Kondapalli units, which sell electricity at market rates.

The TDSAT has directed Bharti Airtel to pay 50% of the Rs500mn penalty imposed by the DoT in the matter of alleged violation of licence terms and conditions by the private operator for issuing bulk mobile connections.

TCS will give out offer letters to 45,000 fresh engineers in 2012-13 through its annual campus recruitment drive.

Macquarie Group and SBI are drawing up plans to raise US$1-1.5bn for their second fund to invest in infrastructure assets and companies in India.

Two promoters of IRB Infrastructure have sold around 10% stake through secondary market transactions in the past one week to raise around Rs. 4.57bn to revoke pledge on the shares held by them.

Hindustan Dorr-Oliver (HDO), a listed subsidiary of Hyderabad-based infrastructure firm IVRCL, is eying more acquisitions in Europe, group chairman E Sudhir Reddy has been quoted as saying.

Lupin hopes to finalise two marketing alliances with a multinational company and a domestic company by March to market adult vaccines and enhance its market share in chronic diseases segment, Shakti Chakraborty, group president, domestic formulations has been quoted as saying.

Facing the situation! Daily Market Strategy

European indices finished mixed following the fresh downgrade of Spain and a Moody's warning to France over its "AAA" rating outlook. Apart from corporate results, investors will also keep an eye on US inflation, housing data and Fed’s beige book survey.

It is a good rule to face difficulties at the time they arise and not allow them to increase unacknowledged - Ziegler.

The situation seems better at least at start today. US stocks climbed amid reports that Germany and France have agreed to shore up the eurozone bailout fund. But, another report has denied the same stating that the debate on the size of the EFSF may continue for a while. Consensus view is unlikely anyways.

Asian markets are holding firm. European indices finished mixed following the fresh downgrade of Spain and a Moody's warning to France over its "AAA" rating outlook. Apart from corporate results, investors will also keep an eye on US inflation, housing data and Fed’s beige book survey.

Biocon, Bajaj Finserv, HDFC Bank, Crompton Greaves, Dish TV and Hindustan Zinc will be in focus before their earnings. Hero MotoCorp will also be in the spotlight after its Q2 results.
Overall, earnings have been mixed so far - both from domestic as well as offshore firms. For the Nifty, 5095 could turn out to be an important resistance.

Although markets have lost some steam this week equities are less likely to tumble much unless fresh global headwinds hit us hard. At best expect sideways consolidation before any fresh move on either direction.

FIIs were net sellers of Rs. 2.85bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Tuesday, according to NSE data. The domestic institutional institutions (DIIs) were net sellers at Rs. 1.32bn on the same day.

FIIs were net sellers of Rs. 2.22bn (provisional) in the F&O segment, according to NSE web site.

The foreign funds were net buyers at Rs. 3.97bn in the cash segment on Monday, as per SEBI data. Mutual funds were net sellers at Rs. 20mn on the same day.

Results Today: Ajmera Realty, Alembic, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Biocon, Crompton Greaves, Dish TV, Essar Ports, HDFC Bank, Hindustan Zinc, IGL, Infotech Enterprises, JB Chemicals, Mastek, Rallis India, Raymond, Torrent Power, WWIL, Zee Learn and Zee News.
TEN MOST ACTIVE FUTURES
Symbol
No.of Cont Traded
Last price
Open Interest
% chg in Op.Int
TCS
29,682
1,034.30
5000750
1.09
SBIN
27,697
1,867.75
5251375
-2.11
ICICIBANK
21,413
877.95
9332500
-10.32
TATAMOTORS
21,269
180.95
37432500
-14.29
TATASTEEL
17,596
424.10
17664500
-1.49
RELIANCE
17,456
823.40
12915750
-2.43
INFY
16,332
2,694.80
2488000
-12.09
AXISBANK
15,938
1,088.70
6040000
-0.46
JSWSTEEL
13,429
576.40
8150750
-10.01
DLF
12,465
228.80
20850000
-9.81
TEN MOST ACTIVE OPTIONS

Option Type
Strike price
No.of Cont Traded
Open Interest
% Chg in Op.In
SBIN
CE
1,900
4,270
257250
11.61
RELIANCE
CE
840
3,310
425750
16.33
TCS
CE
1,100
3,077
331750
72.56
RELIANCE
CE
820
2,900
229250
48.86
PETRONET
CE
170
2,581
1298000
58.68
SBIN
CE
2,000
2,496
567125
-3.06
TCS
CE
1,050
2,383
207250
163.17
SBIN
PE
1,800
2,363
264750
32.38
CHAMBLFERT
CE
100
2,301
2652000
74.47
SBIN
CE
1,950
2,299
391500
-7.17
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVEL
Company Name
S3
S2
S1
Close
R1
R2
R3
Sensex Index
16,646
16,670
16,697
16,748
16,800
16,826
16,851
Nifty Index
5,007
5,014
5,022
5,038
5,053
5,061
5,068
ABB Ltd
654
657
659
665
670
673
675
ACC
1,094
1,097
1,100
1,105
1,111
1,114
1,117
Ambuja Cements
149
150
151
152
154
155
155
Bajaj Holdings
724
726
728
731
735
737
738
BHEL
317
318
320
322
324
325
326
Bharti Airte
369
370
371
374
377
378
379
Cipla
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
Dabur India
96
96
96
97
98
99
99
GAIL India
407
409
411
414
417
419
420
Grasim Ind.
2,303
2,310
2,318
2,332
2,346
2,353
2,360
HCL Tech
388
391
395
402
408
412
415
HDFC Bank
472
473
475
478
481
483
485
Hero Honda
1,952
1,960
1,969
1,986
2,003
2,012
2,020
Hindalco
123
123
124
125
127
127
128
Hindustan Unilever
324
325
327
329
332
333
335
ICICI Bank
862
866
869
877
884
888
891
Infosys Tech
2,676
2,682
2,689
2,702
2,714
2,721
2,727
ITC Ltd
202
203
203
204
205
206
206
L&T
1,330
1,335
1,340
1,349
1,358
1,363
1,367
MTNL
29
30
30
30
30
30
30
M&M
799
801
803
808
812
814
816
Maruti Suzuki
1,035
1,039
1,044
1,052
1,061
1,066
1,070
Mahindra Satyam
69
70
70
71
72
72
73
National Alumin
59
59
60
60
61
61
61
ONGC
258
259
261
264
267
268
269
Oriental Bank
288
290
292
296
301
303
305
PNB
957
959
961
965
970
972
974
Ranbaxy Labs
488
491
495
503
510
514
517
Reliance Capital
315
317
319
322
326
328
330
Reliance Comm
73
73
73
74
75
75
76
Reliance Energy
399
401
403
407
411
413
415
Reliance Inds
810
812
815
820
825
828
830
R Power
85
85
85
86
86
87
87
Siemens India
802
805
809
816
823
826
830
SBI
1,834
1,842
1,851
1,867
1,883
1,891
1,899
TCS
1,005
1,012
1,019
1,034
1,048
1,055
1,062
Tata Motors
177
178
179
181
184
185
186
Tata Power
99
99
100
100
101
101
102
Tata Steel
421
423
425
429
433
435
437
Tata comm
180
182
183
185
187
188
189
Wipro
340
342
343
346
349
351
352
Wire And Wireless
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
Zee Entertainment
111
112
112
113
114
115
116

Followers